How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

Julkaistu 27.03.2020
Näkymät 5 864 935
1 715

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: fistore.info/videot/rJXWZdWqq6bcopo.html
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

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Kommentteja  
  • Kalan Saunders

    Kalan Saunders

    2 tuntia sitten

    Covid 19 is ending in Australia

  • Eben Visher

    Eben Visher

    8 tuntia sitten

    What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

  • 王荺勝

    王荺勝

    13 tuntia sitten

    Chinese data are fake

  • 刘娅

    刘娅

    13 tuntia sitten

    well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot...
    so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country.
    I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone
    希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

  • Alexander Jackson

    Alexander Jackson

    Päivä sitten

    Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

  • Eva Lam

    Eva Lam

    Päivä sitten

    China is LYING !!!!

    • 江枫

      江枫

      Päivä sitten

      That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

  • nitchvideo

    nitchvideo

    Päivä sitten

    Here is a powerful source of understanding. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

  • John the Greek

    John the Greek

    2 päivää sitten

    Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying.
    Great video though

  • Freeda Peeple

    Freeda Peeple

    2 päivää sitten

    I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

  • Benjamin Genco

    Benjamin Genco

    2 päivää sitten

    I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

  • Jewelry Bag

    Jewelry Bag

    2 päivää sitten

    This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

  • wojeff

    wojeff

    2 päivää sitten

    March 24: this video was filmed
    March 25: highest exponential growth point in US
    March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US
    March 27: this video premiered

  • Eugenia Sum

    Eugenia Sum

    2 päivää sitten

    They didn’t include Taiwan tho

    • wojeff

      wojeff

      2 päivää sitten

      I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan

  • Bern Metro

    Bern Metro

    2 päivää sitten

    Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

    • wojeff

      wojeff

      2 päivää sitten

      aatishb.com/covidtrends/

  • Jorge Cossa

    Jorge Cossa

    2 päivää sitten

    Nice

  • Mario Z

    Mario Z

    3 päivää sitten

    The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

    • wojeff

      wojeff

      2 päivää sitten

      That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

  • Yash Pal Goyal

    Yash Pal Goyal

    4 päivää sitten

    6:26 please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right:
    https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE

    • Yash Pal Goyal

      Yash Pal Goyal

      4 päivää sitten

      otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

  • Arwah Sapi

    Arwah Sapi

    5 päivää sitten

    Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

  • Fez Paladin

    Fez Paladin

    5 päivää sitten

    WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?

  • sk Farhan

    sk Farhan

    6 päivää sitten

    Hey you haven't made new video yet
    Where are you?

  • John Hailstone

    John Hailstone

    6 päivää sitten

    And post-viral effects.

  • LIL JON'S

    LIL JON'S

    6 päivää sitten

    Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

  • IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

    7 päivää sitten

    >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

  • tom091178

    tom091178

    7 päivää sitten

    Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

  • Tae-young Kim

    Tae-young Kim

    7 päivää sitten

    중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

  • North Korea

    North Korea

    7 päivää sitten

    America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af
    China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

    • Wendull 81

      Wendull 81

      2 päivää sitten

      Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

  • 52marli

    52marli

    8 päivää sitten

    I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

  • Dodger Yassel

    Dodger Yassel

    8 päivää sitten

    You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

  • khoen Da boss

    khoen Da boss

    9 päivää sitten

    Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

  • Jean Poutine

    Jean Poutine

    9 päivää sitten

    Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

  • Davin Riedstra

    Davin Riedstra

    9 päivää sitten

    This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

    • Mister Comple

      Mister Comple

      7 päivää sitten

      aatishb.com/covidtrends/

  • Parakmi I

    Parakmi I

    9 päivää sitten

    To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

  • pragadeesh sv

    pragadeesh sv

    10 päivää sitten

    can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

  • DONG YEUN KIM

    DONG YEUN KIM

    10 päivää sitten

    COVID-19:
    *_exists_*

    Korea CDC:
    *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

  • Rin

    Rin

    10 päivää sitten

    this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

    • Mister Comple

      Mister Comple

      7 päivää sitten

      your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

  • jokinabadsbs

    jokinabadsbs

    11 päivää sitten

    China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

  • CircleDrawing

    CircleDrawing

    12 päivää sitten

    US isn't tough

  • 김철수

    김철수

    12 päivää sitten

    국뽕...

  • Jacob E Owens

    Jacob E Owens

    13 päivää sitten

    Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

  • Simranjeet singh matharoo

    Simranjeet singh matharoo

    13 päivää sitten

    "don't plot against time"
    that's a life hack right there

  • what is life

    what is life

    14 päivää sitten

    Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

    • 江枫

      江枫

      Päivä sitten

      Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

  • Rachel’s rants I.

    Rachel’s rants I.

    14 päivää sitten

    Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

  • AGR

    AGR

    14 päivää sitten

    Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

  • 소고기커피

    소고기커피

    14 päivää sitten

    im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

  • Paul Matencio

    Paul Matencio

    15 päivää sitten

    Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

  • Naomi Harding

    Naomi Harding

    15 päivää sitten

    Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

  • Ciron Soauv

    Ciron Soauv

    16 päivää sitten

    What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

  • Bigdatamonk Inc.

    Bigdatamonk Inc.

    16 päivää sitten

    @minutephysics
    Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

  • banbanrocks

    banbanrocks

    16 päivää sitten

    Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

    • Russ Wilkie

      Russ Wilkie

      13 päivää sitten

      It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

  • Ron Chasr

    Ron Chasr

    16 päivää sitten

    Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

  • Robert Lockwood

    Robert Lockwood

    17 päivää sitten

    Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

  • dead pool

    dead pool

    17 päivää sitten

    Are we wining or losing

  • Matthew Snyder

    Matthew Snyder

    17 päivää sitten

    https://youtu.be/Tw9Ci2PZKZg

  • XCMysterious Hope

    XCMysterious Hope

    17 päivää sitten

    After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

  • Harb Winetin

    Harb Winetin

    17 päivää sitten

    China's number of cases are a lie of course.

    • banbanrocks

      banbanrocks

      16 päivää sitten

      People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

  • savemelofi

    savemelofi

    17 päivää sitten

    Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

    • savemelofi

      savemelofi

      11 päivää sitten

      @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

    • banbanrocks

      banbanrocks

      16 päivää sitten

      It's about the truth, not CCP.

  • Ben E

    Ben E

    17 päivää sitten

    Probably should throw out chinas numbers...

  • DEMONSTRIA WOO

    DEMONSTRIA WOO

    17 päivää sitten

    Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

    • banbanrocks

      banbanrocks

      16 päivää sitten

      Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed

  • DEMONSTRIA WOO

    DEMONSTRIA WOO

    17 päivää sitten

    I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

    • IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

      IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

      5 päivää sitten

      The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

  • Prakash Goyal

    Prakash Goyal

    17 päivää sitten

    Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

  • supersonic2K8

    supersonic2K8

    18 päivää sitten

    This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

  • 한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller

    한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller

    18 päivää sitten

    Just don't do it.

  • Eclipse Z

    Eclipse Z

    18 päivää sitten

    My country *I AM SPEED*
    Also my country- *The USA*

  • aredesuyo

    aredesuyo

    18 päivää sitten

    So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

    • Russ Wilkie

      Russ Wilkie

      13 päivää sitten

      This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

  • Harrison Yoo

    Harrison Yoo

    18 päivää sitten

    Not China though

  • Our World Visualised

    Our World Visualised

    18 päivää sitten

    Good stuff

  • Tim Allen

    Tim Allen

    18 päivää sitten

    Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.

  • DANGER DOG

    DANGER DOG

    18 päivää sitten

    If you think China is being truthful about their death numbers, you are an ignoramus.

  • hawk0485

    hawk0485

    19 päivää sitten

    Why did you remove the country selection tool?!

  • Darren Dentremont

    Darren Dentremont

    20 päivää sitten

    Why are you showing China ? There numbers are not to be trusted at all.

  • mt89

    mt89

    20 päivää sitten

    COVID 19 ORIGINATED in USA. The virus was leaked from Fort Detrick, Maryland in July 2019. The bio-warfare lab was subsequently shutdown due to leakage. A substantial proportion of US flu cases were in fact covid19 cases. On 12 Mar 2020, CDC official had admitted that "some" flu cases in the US are COVID 19 cases. COVID 19 is spreading in US as early as August 2019, the gov just covers it up. The American athletes brought the virus to Wuhan when they participated in World Military Games.
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078
    #Thanksforthevirus
    #UScovid19
    #NewYorkVirus
    #AmericaVirus
    #FluNoTestNoVirus
    #NoWearMask

  • THE THIRD EYE

    THE THIRD EYE

    20 päivää sitten

    18 thing you should know about COVID https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0SDGwWygYQ&t=6s

  • j c

    j c

    21 päivä sitten

    idk why youtube are so sour. the country of china is opening up the society, kids are going to school, factories are open, things are running back to normal. if the gov lies then there will be a hell show of dead body laying every, which is not the case. why don't some just admit that many countries like america and britain got y'all fucked up, world is not expect you make no mistake. looks like a joke when y'all yelling fake number with millions infected to some other countries where people back to normal life and don't give shit what you think

  • Robert Cruikshank

    Robert Cruikshank

    21 päivä sitten

    Where can we see an updated version?? This is extremely well done! EDIT: Found it! https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
    Link sent by a student of mine.

    • Likey

      Likey

      19 päivää sitten

      It’s in the description, too.. and gets updated daily

    • Robert Cruikshank

      Robert Cruikshank

      20 päivää sitten

      aatishb.com/covidtrends/ link was sent to me by a student!

  • Awake Freedom

    Awake Freedom

    21 päivä sitten

    Ok so check this
    https://youtu.be/PsGJJNOAolk

  • Sascha Fischer

    Sascha Fischer

    21 päivä sitten

    Can you do an update on this chart that would be really cool.

  • Arda Ehi

    Arda Ehi

    21 päivä sitten

    If you dont upload video soon you will have more dangerous problems

  • Brittany Newton

    Brittany Newton

    22 päivää sitten

    shrtlink.ca/1810llixxxcoolsi1icone

  • Dził Ba Hadadolgháásh

    Dził Ba Hadadolgháásh

    23 päivää sitten

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/navajonationcovid19#!/vizhome/NavajoNationCOVID-19NewCasesVSTotalCasesDailyNewPositiveCasesCumulativePositiveCases/Dashboard1 is this kind of similar?

  • Darryl Johnson

    Darryl Johnson

    23 päivää sitten

    You will never beat this virus until you come up with a vaccine it plays games with the immune system.